Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rennes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rennes 1-0 Marseille
Original prediction
Rennes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 45.5% | 46.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.7% | 24.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 29.8% | 29.1% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Rennes
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Rennes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RennesWWDLL
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
MarseilleLLWLW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
RennesMarseille
77.8Attack66.7
44.4Defence44.4
77.8Form33.3
70.7Power45.9
2.08xG1.42