Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rennes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rennes 3-2 Le Mans
Original prediction
Rennes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 66.5% | 46.2% | -20.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.82 | 19.7% | 25.3% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 6.88 | 13.8% | 28.5% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Rennes
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Rennes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RennesDLLLD
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Le MansDLDDW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RennesLe Mans
66.7Attack66.7
33.3Defence33.3
33.3Form33.3
45.3Power45.3
1.65xG1.41