Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rennes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rennes 4-1 Auxerre
Original prediction
Rennes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 66.1% | 55.4% | -10.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 19.5% | 21.9% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 6.59 | 14.4% | 22.8% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Rennes
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Rennes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RennesLLDWW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AuxerreWWWLL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
RennesAuxerre
53.3Attack46.7
40.0Defence20.0
66.7Form40.0
56.1Power39.3
2.25xG1.36