Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Treviso · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Renate 0-1 Treviso
Original prediction
Treviso
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.2% | 32.5% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.4% | 38.0% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Treviso
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Treviso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RenateLDDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
TrevisoDDWDW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RenateTreviso
33.3Attack50.0
50.0Defence83.3
16.7Form100.0
36.5Power83.3
0.92xG1.25