Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Renate · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Renate 1-2 Novara
Original prediction
Renate
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.4% | 36.4% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.6% | 30.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.11 | 29.1% | 33.6% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Renate
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Renate has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RenateLLLDW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NovaraDDLWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RenateNovara
0.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
0.0Form33.3
23.7Power45.3
1.11xG1.11