Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reipas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Reipas are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while PEPO are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and PEPO hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (33.8 v 38.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Reipas holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Reipas
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
11.5%
Reipas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20