Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reipas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reipas 7-1 MyPa
Original prediction
Reipas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.49 | 60.6% | 49.4% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 18.9% | 24.6% | 5.7 pts |
| Away | 4.38 | 20.6% | 26.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Reipas
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Reipas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReipasLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MyPaLLWWL
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ReipasMyPa
57.1Attack42.9
34.9Defence27.0
38.1Form28.6
44.3Power34.5
2.86xG1.54