Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilves II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Reipas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Ilves II are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Ilves II hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (33.8 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Ilves II holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ilves II
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
10.1%
Ilves II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 13 · GA 15 · avg 2.60/3.00