Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reipas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-3
Reipas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while HPS are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and HPS hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (51.2 v 55.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.1% in the Kakkonen - Lohko A, while Reipas holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 91% BTTS chance and 94% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Reipas
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
6.1%
Reipas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40