Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reggiana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reggiana 0-1 Spezia
Original prediction
Reggiana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 36.1% | 37.1% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.8% | 29.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 36.2% | 33.5% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Reggiana
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Reggiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReggianaLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SpeziaWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ReggianaSpezia
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.23xG1.04