Redditch Unitedvs
Malvern Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/7/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Redditch United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Redditch United 4-0 Malvern Town
Original prediction
Redditch United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.8% | 43.9% | -13.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.9% | 26.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 4.73 | 19.3% | 29.8% | 10.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Redditch United
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Redditch United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00