Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reddis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reddis 1-4 Manresa
Original prediction
Reddis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.2% | 37.0% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.1% | 29.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 24.6% | 33.8% | 9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Reddis
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Reddis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReddisWWLLL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
ManresaLLWWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ReddisManresa
16.7Attack58.3
75.0Defence66.7
50.0Form50.0
50.3Power57.7
0.97xG1.06