Redcar Athleticvs
Macclesfield
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Macclesfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Redcar Athletic 1-2 Macclesfield
Original prediction
Macclesfield
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.09 | 22.3% | 28.1% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.97 | 22.9% | 25.4% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 54.8% | 46.5% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Macclesfield
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Macclesfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80