Redcar Athleticvs
Alfreton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Redcar Athletic · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Redcar Athletic 3-1 Alfreton Town
Original prediction
Redcar Athletic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.6% | 49.0% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.7% | 26.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 23.7% | 24.0% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Redcar Athletic
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Redcar Athletic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00