Red Bull Salzburgvs
Sturm Graz
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Red Bull Salzburg · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 Sturm Graz
Original prediction
Red Bull Salzburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 59.3% | 56.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 21.0% | 23.2% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 4.73 | 19.7% | 20.3% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Red Bull Salzburg
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Red Bull Salzburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20