Red Bull Salzburgvs
AC Milan
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Red Bull Salzburg · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Red Bull Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan
Original prediction
Red Bull Salzburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 25.8% | 45.3% | 19.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 25.2% | 25.4% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 49.1% | 29.3% | -19.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Red Bull Salzburg
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Red Bull Salzburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20