Recreativa de Lamelasvs
Vitória SC
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vitória SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Recreativa de Lamelas 0-1 Vitória SC
Original prediction
Vitória SC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 40.04 | 2.3% | 34.5% | 32.2 pts |
| Draw | 11.72 | 7.9% | 21.8% | 13.9 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 89.8% | 43.7% | -46.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-46.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Vitória SC
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Vitória SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00