Recoletavs
Magallanes
COMPLETEDChile · Primera B · 10/10/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Recoleta · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Recoleta 1-2 Magallanes
Original prediction
Recoleta
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 16:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 39.1% | 37.8% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.27 | 27.8% | 29.1% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.75 | 33.1% | 33.1% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Recoleta
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Recoleta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RecoletaWDWWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MagallanesWWDDL
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
RecoletaMagallanes
48.7Attack53.8
56.4Defence51.3
52.6Form55.1
54.4Power56.3
1.51xG1.29