Reboceros La Piedadvs
Irapuato
COMPLETEDMexico · Primera Premier · 9/22/2026, 2:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reboceros La Piedad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reboceros La Piedad 2-3 Irapuato
Original prediction
Reboceros La Piedad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.4% | 38.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.4% | 27.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.2% | 34.7% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Reboceros La Piedad
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Reboceros La Piedad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60