Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real 5-5 Lajense
Original prediction
Real
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.7% | 43.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.2% | 28.3% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.1% | 28.2% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Real
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Real has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RealWLLLL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LajenseLWWLW
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RealLajense
33.3Attack0.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.50xG0.92