Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Serpa · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Real are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while FC Serpa are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and fC Serpa hold a 16.2-point power-rating edge (32.6 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely result in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D, favouring FC Serpa with 16.4% confidence, a 37% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Serpa
Probability
45.4%
Model confidence
16.4%
FC Serpa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20