Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real 1-1 FC Serpa
Original prediction
Real
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 37.6% | 37.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 24.8% | 26.6% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 37.6% | 36.0% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.60 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Real
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Real has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RealLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC SerpaLDDWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RealFC Serpa
100.0Attack55.6
16.7Defence66.7
66.7Form55.6
64.8Power60.9
1.50xG1.43