Real Ávilavs
Numancia
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/11/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Numancia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Real Ávila 0-0 Numancia, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Ávila 1-1 Numancia
Original prediction
Numancia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.83 | 32.0% | 30.9% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.5% | 30.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.5% | 38.9% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Real Ávila 0–0 Numancia
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Numancia
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Numancia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Real ÁvilaLWWLL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NumanciaDWDWW
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Real ÁvilaNumancia
33.3Attack33.3
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form73.3
47.5Power70.9
0.87xG1.09