Real Ávilavs
Getafe II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/27/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Ávila · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Ávila 1-0 Getafe II
Original prediction
Real Ávila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 42.0% | 38.8% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.1% | 29.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 28.9% | 31.8% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Real Ávila
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Real Ávila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60