Real Ávilavs
Calvo Sotelo
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 9/20/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Ávila · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Ávila 2-1 Calvo Sotelo
Original prediction
Real Ávila
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.7% | 41.3% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 29.4% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 4.57 | 19.9% | 29.2% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Real Ávila
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Real Ávila has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00