Real Uniónvs
UD Ourense
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/3/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Unión · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Unión 1-1 UD Ourense
Original prediction
Real Unión
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 67.3% | 43.3% | -24.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.65 | 19.6% | 27.6% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 6.96 | 13.1% | 29.1% | 16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Real Unión
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Real Unión has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80