Real Uniónvs
Lugo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lugo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Unión 4-1 Lugo
Original prediction
Lugo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.0% | 24.9% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.6% | 23.8% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 35.4% | 51.3% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Lugo
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Lugo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60