Real Sociedad Wvs
Real Madrid W
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División Femenina · 9/26/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad W 3-5 Real Madrid W
Original prediction
Real Madrid W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.03 | 22.4% | 23.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.5% | 25.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 53.1% | 51.1% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid W
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Real Madrid W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60