Real Sociedadvs
Espanyol
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad 2-1 Espanyol
Original prediction
Espanyol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 52.2% | 34.1% | -18.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 25.8% | 26.7% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 22.0% | 39.3% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Espanyol
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Espanyol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00