Real Sociedadvs
Deportivo La Coruna
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/11/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Deportivo La Coruna · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad 3-2 Deportivo La Coruna
Original prediction
Deportivo La Coruna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 59.7% | 37.0% | -22.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.06 | 23.4% | 24.9% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 5.62 | 16.9% | 38.1% | 21.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Deportivo La Coruna
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Deportivo La Coruna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60