Real Sociedadvs
Celta Vigo
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Sociedad · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad 0-0 Celta Vigo
Original prediction
Real Sociedad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 50.6% | 41.8% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 26.2% | 27.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.09 | 23.2% | 30.7% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Real Sociedad
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Real Sociedad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20