Real Sociedadvs
Bournemouth
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Sociedad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad 1-2 Bournemouth
Original prediction
Real Sociedad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.04 | 31.2% | 40.9% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.5% | 26.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 42.3% | 32.2% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Real Sociedad
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Real Sociedad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40