Real Sociedadvs
Atletico Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid
Original prediction
Atletico Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 29.9% | 33.4% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.5% | 26.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 43.6% | 40.3% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Madrid
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Atletico Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60