Real Sociedad IIvs
Almeria
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Almeria · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Sociedad II 2-4 Almeria
Original prediction
Almeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.42 | 27.2% | 15.6% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.7% | 20.3% | -6.4 pts |
| Away | 2.02 | 46.2% | 64.1% | 18.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Almeria
Probability
64.1%
Model confidence
64.1%
Almeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20