Real SantandervsUnion Magdalena

COMPLETED

Colombia · Primera B · 10/3/2026, 8:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Union Magdalena · BTTS No · Under 2.5

Projected score: Real Santander 0-1 Union Magdalena, with an exact score probability of 19%.

Final result

Real Santander 1-3 Union Magdalena

Original prediction

Union Magdalena

Outcome

Correct

Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.

Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50

Market	Odds	Implied probability	Model probability	Difference
Home	2.93	31.0%	27.2%	-3.8 pts
Draw	3.21	28.3%	29.9%	1.6 pts
Away	2.23	40.7%	42.9%	2.2 pts

Historical EV

1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -

Value score

2.2 pts

Projected Score

Real Santander 0–1 Union Magdalena

Exact score probability: 19%

Predicted outcome

Union Magdalena

Probability

42.9%

Model confidence

42.9%

Union Magdalena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Real SantanderDDLDW

GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5

Union MagdalenaDDWLL

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5

Real SantanderUnion Magdalena

28.0Attack45.6

49.3Defence67.8

25.3Form54.4

37.0Power57.3

0.54xG1.34