Real Murciavs
Zaragoza
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/18/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zaragoza · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Murcia 0-0 Zaragoza
Original prediction
Zaragoza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.8% | 36.8% | 2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 26.1% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 37.1% | 37.0% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Zaragoza
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Zaragoza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60