Real Murciavs
Gimnastic
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Murcia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Real Murcia 1-0 Gimnastic, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Murcia 2-0 Gimnastic
Original prediction
Real Murcia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.5% | 47.3% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 25.5% | 28.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 20.9% | 24.3% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.3 pts
Projected Score
Real Murcia 1–0 Gimnastic
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Real Murcia
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Real Murcia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40