Real Murciavs
Europa Fc
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/19/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Murcia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Murcia 2-1 Europa Fc
Original prediction
Real Murcia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.1% | 46.5% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.8% | 28.5% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 4.76 | 19.1% | 25.0% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Real Murcia
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Real Murcia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80