Real Murcia IIvs
Lorca Deportiva
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/25/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lorca Deportiva · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Murcia II 3-2 Lorca Deportiva
Original prediction
Lorca Deportiva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.4% | 29.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.7% | 30.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.9% | 40.5% | -1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Lorca Deportiva
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Lorca Deportiva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00