Real Monarchsvs
Tacoma Defiance
COMPLETEDUSA · MLS Next Pro · 8/31/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tacoma Defiance · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Monarchs 3-0 Tacoma Defiance
Original prediction
Tacoma Defiance
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 38.4% | 31.5% | -6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.8% | 21.4% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.8% | 47.1% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Tacoma Defiance
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Tacoma Defiance has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00