Real Madridvs
Villarreal
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/10/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 70.1% | 64.3% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.72 | 16.7% | 18.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 7.23 | 13.2% | 17.3% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
64.3%
Model confidence
64.3%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00