Real Madridvs
Sevilla
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 76.3% | 68.4% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 6.50 | 14.7% | 17.4% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 10.53 | 9.1% | 14.2% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
68.4%
Model confidence
68.4%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80