Real Madridvs
Real Sociedad
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 75.4% | 52.7% | -22.7 pts |
| Draw | 6.21 | 15.4% | 24.6% | 9.2 pts |
| Away | 10.38 | 9.2% | 22.7% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
52.7%
Model confidence
52.7%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00