Real Madridvs
RB Leipzig
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 10/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 77.5% | 56.8% | -20.7 pts |
| Draw | 7.24 | 13.2% | 21.6% | 8.4 pts |
| Away | 10.24 | 9.3% | 21.6% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60