Real Madridvs
Rayo Vallecano
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 83.8% | 66.2% | -17.7 pts |
| Draw | 8.83 | 10.8% | 18.3% | 7.5 pts |
| Away | 17.77 | 5.4% | 15.5% | 10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
66.2%
Model confidence
66.2%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60