GGOALVIO

Spain · La Liga · 8/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Real Madrid · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Mediumconfidence

Real Madrid are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Malaga are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Real Madrid hold a 28.7-point power-rating edge (78.7 v 50.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.3% in the La Liga, while Real Madrid holds the strongest overall chance at 77% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Real Madrid

Probability

77.1%

Model confidence

14.3%

Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Real MadridWWDWW

GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MalagaDLWDD

GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20

BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Real MadridMalaga
76.3Attack50.0
77.2Defence50.0
83.3Form50.0
78.7Power50.0
2.53xG0.62
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