Real Madridvs
Malaga
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 8/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid 4-0 Malaga
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.10 | 87.3% | 59.8% | -27.5 pts |
| Draw | 10.87 | 8.8% | 21.4% | 12.6 pts |
| Away | 24.22 | 4.0% | 18.8% | 14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80