GGOALVIO

World · UEFA Super Cup · 8/14/2024, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Real Madrid are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Atalanta are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Real Madrid hold a 73.3-point power-rating edge (88.7 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.2% in the UEFA Super Cup, while Real Madrid holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Real Madrid

Probability

49.2%

Model confidence

49.2%

Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Real MadridWLLWD

GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AtalantaLLDWW

GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
Real MadridAtalanta
66.7Attack0.0
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
88.7Power15.3
1.88xG0.98
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