Real Madrid IIIvs
Guadalajara
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid III · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid III 1-1 Guadalajara
Original prediction
Real Madrid III
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.4% | 35.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.98 | 30.4% | 29.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 35.2% | 34.6% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid III
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Real Madrid III has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80