Real Madrid IIIvs
Conquense
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 · 10/25/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Conquense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid III 0-2 Conquense
Original prediction
Conquense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.8% | 29.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 30.1% | 30.2% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.1% | 40.7% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Conquense
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Conquense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20