Real Madrid IIvs
Atlético Madrid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/2/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid II 3-2 Atlético Madrid II
Original prediction
Real Madrid II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.5% | 37.1% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.4% | 29.0% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 3.93 | 23.2% | 33.9% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid II
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Real Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00