Real Madrid IIvs
Alcorcon
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/27/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Real Madrid II 0-0 Alcorcon, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Madrid II 1-2 Alcorcon
Original prediction
Real Madrid II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 47.4% | 39.7% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.6% | 29.9% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.63 | 25.0% | 30.4% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.8 pts
Projected Score
Real Madrid II 0–0 Alcorcon
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid II
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Real Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80